Illegal Procedure

I know my first post was to be a more sedate review of Invicible, but this made me laugh much too hard to not post:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CvKD8Wzm1I

Way to clean up the ol’ image, Miami. Perhaps the NFL morons on ESPN will have to end their slobbery chants of “The U!” while ignoring that the on-set representative ran over students’ feet with his car. Not that any other “graduates” of Miami have been anything less than upstanding.

By the way, my two favorite moments are when the crowd of Miami players surround and stomp on the FIU guy, as well as the belly-to-back suplex in the middle of the crowd. Nice tackle.

I picked all home teams, except:

Chicago over Minnesota. It hurts for me to pick this way. There is currently no evidence to support the pants-creaming of the current Chicago bandwagon (they might be good, but their two wins — over teams that wouldn’t be competitive in the Big Ten — doesn’t demonstrate that). Personally, I currently doubt that the Bears are as good as everyone thinks they are, but I think they’re probably going to pull off the win over a beat-up Vikings squad this week.

Green Bay over Detroit. Speaking of the Big Ten: after the near-certainty of Michigan dealing a vicious prison-raping to Wisconsin at the Big House, Green Bay will go to Fire Millen Field and avenge the Badger state. I think that the wheels are basically off of both teams, but Green Bay has at least made some things happen on offense this year. Now that I think about it, a Wolverines-Lions matchup might present a pretty good game.

Washington over Houston. Neither of these teams is as bad as it looks, but the ‘Skins are probably better. I suspect that they could restrict themselves to 20 pages of the playbook and still win, since David Carr will be picking turf out of his helmet all day and (Big Ten reference #3!) Ron Dayne is rumored to get the start for Houston. Hey, Ron, how about the success rates of Heisman Trophy winners in the NFL?

Baltimore over Cleveland. If Kellen Winslow II really were a soldier, he’d have been court-martialed for insubordination.

Philadelphia over San Francisco. I’d be worried about this game if I were Andy Reid — the 49ers have looked surprisingly like a rough approximation of a professional football team this year, and Westbrook is banged up. However, I still think Philly takes this one.

Atlanta over New Orleans. To add insult to injury, a statistically significant number of teenage girls in the Bayou will suddenly be needing to get Valtrex prescriptions filled in the coming weeks. If I were a visiting team, I’d stay out of the Superdome showers for a few weeks unless I was immediately preceded by a powerwasher and bleach.

Each week that I feel like it, I’ll post my picks, along with optional snark. These are not “against the spread;” they are “who will win the game,” since — last I checked — you can’t make it to the playoffs by compiling a brilliant record against the spread. If you’re concerned about “spreads,” I suggest finding a better use of your spending money.

Miami at Pittsburgh

I picked Miami. Whoops. At least you know I’m honest. In my defense, I really didn’t expect “terrible, confused, crash-n-burn Daunte” to replace “übermensch, team leader, cool-as-Stuart-Scott-catchphrases-aren’t Daunte” until at least week 2 — at least, that’s how it went down last year.

NYJ at Tennessee

I picked Tennessee, but it doesn’t matter. I suspect both teams will be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs by the middle of the third quarter. Anyone who is still watching this game in the final 20 minutes should consider dialing 1-800-BETS-OFF. The real question is: what household product will the trainers be using to stabilize Pennington’s shoulder after the inevitable injury?

Philly at Houston

Philly.

Cincinnati at Kansas City

My gut says to go with the home team in these kind of cases, but KC may have trouble moving the ball with a patchwork line and a new coach and OC. I was going to go with KC even in light of these, but I just talked myself out of it. Cincy.

Denver at St. Louis

Denver, and this game will probably be over in less than 3.25 hours. (What’s that about the home team winning 60% of the time, again?)

Atlanta at Carolina

DeAngelo Hall, by virtue of his recent bulletin-board material, is liable to get “burned” by Smith or whatever scrub takes his place. Furthermore, I predict that the Panther front four will be all over the backfield like an “itchy, persistent rash.” Carolina, in an incurable, contagious victory.

Baltimore at Tampa Bay

Since this is a family website, I cannot divulge the vaguely-rhyming epithet I frequently used for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when they were a thorn in my side in the NFC Central. However, I can tell you that it describes a rather uncomfortable and impolite act and is hilarious. In any case, Tampa takes this one.

Buffalo at New England

When we asked him about this game, Dick Jauron said “Please kill me. I really want a better job, like offensive coordinator at Boise State. Do you think 4 wins will get me there?” He’ll have to get those wins on a different day. New England.

New Orleans at Cleveland

This just in: Peter King has bought a total of 3,304 Saints season tickets. Unfortunately, adding scores of Starbucks devotees to the Superdome won’t help the Saints on the road. And not even King’s lamest prose could distract a “fscking soldier” like Kellen Winslow II. Cleveland FTW, providing a brief glimmer of hope to a fan base about to suffer from another relapse of Seasonal Affective Disorder. (However, also see important note on NYJ/TEN prediction, which is also applicable here.)

Seattle at Detroit

Oh, Detroit is totally going to win the NFC North. Then, they’re going to ride the Rod Marinelli bareback train of ‘discipline’ deep into the playoffs. I bet they’ll actually win the Super Bowl. However, there is no way in hell that they’re beating Seattle. (On a personal note, as a Vikings fan, I strongly encourage giving Millen a contract extension.)

San Francisco at Arizona

You know what they say about San Francisco: “It’s better to be a tight end than a wide receiver, especially since tight ends can block and keep the overpaid never-was quarterback from taking three dirtnaps on every sadly brief series.” Arizona, inexplicably one of the 32 “sleeper” teams advanced by idiot sportswriters again this year, wanted to play against SF to open their new stadium. This is like when my high school asked to play against the magnet school for Homecoming three years in a row. Apparently, playing against SF is sufficient insurance against the “new-stadium jinx.”

Chicago at Green Bay

Favre throws three touchdowns. Unfortunately, one is to Charles Tillman and one is to Nathan Vasher. Also: storied tradition, frozen tundra, playing in adversity, community-owned, empty streets that should be full of fat drunks, blah blah blah, etc. Chicago in a snoozer.

Dallas at Jacksonville

What’chu talking about, Dallas? Jax takes this one at home.

Indianapolis at NYG

This could go either way. I’m picking Indy, but with little confidence. And if your last name is “Manning,” stay out of the stands.

Minnesota at Washington

Homer special: After careful consideration, I pick Minnesota.

San Diego at Oakland

This is tough. Oakland looks like pickled ass, but I’ve eaten animals that could be at least as competent under center as Philip Rivers. I’m picking San Diego, but I think it will be close.

Well, it’s been a while, hasn’t it?

• Washington @ Tampa Bay: Washington. Like their matchup earlier this season, this should be a great game.
• Jacksonville @ New England: New England. Jacksonville benefitted from a weak schedule (Houston and San Fran in the last two weeks? Come on!) , and they will be exposed in this game.
• Carolina @ N.Y. Giants: Giants. The Giants have been consistently strong at home. And I need to pick against Stevonne Smith (yes, that is how he spells his name) for costing me my fantasy football championship with his temper tantrum.
• Pittsburgh @ Cincinatti: Pittsburgh. Like all divisional rivalries, this one could go either way. I actually believe in Cincinatti a little more, but their D-line is a terrible matchup for the Pittsburgh running game. Looking forward, there’s no way they can get through Pittsburgh, then Denver, then presumably Indianapolis without being able to stop the run.

The (reasonably) sure thing

I am completely on the same page as Eben’s last post about the “why me” look that Favre has had all season after throwing a crappy pass or getting taken down again. ESPN has been running a montage of Favre “miked-up” over the years and it’s striking how much less he seems to enjoy the game now. With that said, though, I’d give it an 80% chance that Favre returns, even in spite of his present football-related ennui and the nonstop retirement-related veneration he’s gotten from every sportscaster that’s called a Green Bay game this year; representative samples include:

1. “In possibly his last 5-interception game ever, Brett Favre looks serene, confident, and not a little godlike….”
2. “And as Favre throws it into a cloud of defenders to avoid the sack, you can see a little tear in Kevin Williams’ eye as he takes drives Brett into the ground for what might be the last time….”
3. “In possibly my last chance to massage Favre’s ego, he has had what historians will remember as an excellent game — if you ignore the miscues, the poor decisions, and the score….”

However, playing in subfreezing temperatures in front of a bunch of illiterate, drunken idiots in blaze orange hunting gear who pray to him at night probably doesn’t provide much of an incentive for Favre to return. As the local doofuses began to chant “Four more years!” in the Seahawks-Packers game today, #4′s whimpering look turned to one of virulent contempt. I still think he’ll come back, if only to bolster his records, but it has to grate on a grown man when he knows he’s done a miserable job all year but people treat him as if his spit restores sight to the blind.

Less-confident predictions

Seattle will win the Super Bowl. (70%) I don’t see anyone in the NFC beating Seattle at home, and I think Seattle matches up extremely well with the probable AFC representatives (which I see as Indy, Denver, and NE).

Cincinnati will lose to Pittsburgh. (68%) Sorry Bengal fans, but your defense is only good if they’re creating turnovers, and Pitt won’t make that many mistakes. Furthermore, Pitt has been on a tear lately, while Cincy will have to deal with the post-cornholing soreness after losing to the lame-duck Chiefs.

Mike Tice will keep his job (65%). Since this flies in the face of the conventional wisdom, I’ll explain in another post. (This is contingent on them thoroughly embarassing Soldier Field JV today.)

Matt Leinart will have near-zero impact in the NFL in 2006. (60%) He’s got three strikes against him: the pro game is a lot tougher, he won’t be playing against Pac-10 defenses, and the team that gets him will have no supporting cast. He’s going to go from teaming with Bush to teaming with turf.

Brian Urlacher will settle at least one paternity suit out of court. (50%) The evidence here speaks for itself; this guy is one busted ligament away from the trailer park, breeds like it’s his job, and apparently has a stable of skanks bigger than a Persian warlord’s harem.

TO will go MoClo. (40%) After this jackass burns out with another club, he’ll realize that the only way to maintain his media whoredom is through an act of clumsy, violent, or otherwise embarassing crime.

Happy New Year!

I’m not writing up the big-ass article. I’m tired, and all those tags are an awful lot of work. The WordPress interface blows.

Anyway, I pick all the obvious winners in all games. The only two that aren’t pretty clear are Chicago @ Pitt and KC @ Dallas. I’ll take Pitt over Chicago since they are at home, and I need them to rebound if my fantasy team is going to win in the playoffs. And I’ll take KC over Dallas. Both of these teams are good but seem to choke randomly. I’ll take KC since I was born in that city, and the overly made-up women of Dallas look like a bunch of harlots.

Although I think it’s obvious that Green Bay will finally pull one out vs. the beleaguered Lions, I kinda wish they would lose to keep the Pack in the run for Reggie Bush.

The premise

Well, that room full of monkeys hasn’t yet produced the complete works of the Bard (or even of the Earl of Oxford), but if you feed them and make them fight, they might just predict the outcomes of NFL games. The Food-Eating Battle Monkeys page gives a name and a “battle rating” to different characters based on their names. To demonstrate the futility of attempting to forecast NFL games, we have used the Battle Monkey calculator to determine who will emerge victorious from this week’s contests. We’ll be tracking the results of the battle-monkey predictions and (if we get around to it) will compare these to those of various NFL pundits.

Rather surprisingly, many of the battle-monkey predictions are plausible.

Early afternoon

Atlanta at Carolina: Atlanta (although since when is Atlanta “Purple-People-Eating?”)
Buffalo at Miami: Buffalo
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh
Dallas at N.Y. Giants: N.Y. Giants
Green Bay at Chicago: Green Bay (in a squeaker)
Houston at Baltimore: Houston
Jacksonville at Cleveland: Jacksonville
Minnesota at Detroit: Minnesota
Tampa Bay “at” New Orleans: Baton Rouge
Tennessee at Indianapolis: Tennessee

Late afternoon

Arizona at San Francisco: Arizona
Washington at St. Louis : Washington
Denver at Kansas City: Denver
N.Y. Jets at New England: New England

Sunday night

Oakland at San Diego: Oakland

Monday night

Seattle at Philadelphia : Seattle

Usually Gus features a Pathetic Pundit Prediction as part of his weekly NFL forecast, but I found one that was so absurd that I had to chime in. This week, Venti Latte Mocha Cleveland Steamer predicts that the Vikings will best the Lions 38-7. This is patently absurd for at least four reasons.

First, there is the very real possibility that the Lions, galvanized by crisis and media scrutiny, will pull off the upset. I personally don’t believe this will happen. In fact, I think that Detroit’s offense will continue to stumble; on the other side of the ball, the reëmerging Minnesota Moving Company will play Kalimba Edwards like a thumb piano. However, the possibility — however slight — of a Lions win remains.

Furthermore, King needs to consult recent history. In fact, he ought to consult not-so-recent history — he’d have to go back to October 14, 2004 to find the last time the Vikings scored at least 38 points. This season, the Vikings have only scored more than 28 points only once (against a hapless New Orleans squad) and averaged a meager 18 points per game. (That dismal statistic, alas, is actually inflated: five of Minnnesota’s 21 touchdowns this year have come from defense.) While King is to be commended for not committing the oft-TMQ-identified sin of predicting a statistically-improbable score (e.g. Tennessee 15, Jacksonville 4), it is absurd to predict such an anomalous score given the recent output of the Vikings‘ offense.

A third reason comes from the current identity of the Vikings, who are winning games with clock control and an aggressive defense. Indeed, I would argue that unless Minnesota’s defense scores 14 points, a 38-7 Viking victory should be grounds for Zygi Wilf to immediately dismiss Mike Tice. Running up the score is incompatible with clock control, and the strength of this Vikings team is in its ability to exhaust opposing defenses and force opposing offenses into high-risk, low-reward plays (the sort one might be resorting to if one wished to score 5 touchdowns in a game).

Finally, I would posit that people who make money based on accurately predicting on the outcomes of games are likely to have more reliable opinions than Putatively Fair Trade Doubleshot, who gets paid no matter what crap he fills his column inches with. The Vikings are only favored by 3 in Vegas, and Tradesports forecasts only a 50% chance that they will win by more than one point. (Even more tellingly, Tradesports suggests that there is only a 49.5% chance that the combined score of both squads will meet or exceed 38.)

I think the Vikings will win, but I’m absolutely sure it will be closer than 38-7. My prediction: Vikings win by 13 or less.

Since Week 8:
Overall: 31/42
LOTW: 3/3
Pathetic Pundit Prediction: 3/3

• Arizona @ St. Louis: St. Louis. Four more field goals for fantasy wunderkind Neil Rackers
• Carolina @ Chicago: Carolina. Which Steve will score the touchdowns today?
• Detroit @ Dallas: Dallas. When asked if he was neverous about returning to the starting spot after Jeff Garcia reinjured his leg, Freddie Harrington Jr.’s said, “What are they going to do, bench me?”.
• Jacksonville @ Tennessee: Jacksonville. I just picked up Matt Jones for my fantasy team after his huge week last week. Memo to Jimmy Smith: you’re old.
• Miami @ Cleveland: Miami. I’ve been burned picking both of these teams against other bad teams, but I’ll pick Miami here, since they beat both Denver and Carolina.
• New Orleans @ New England: New England. Look for New England to have a Category 4 victory here.
• Oakland @ Washington: Washington. Oakland has given everybody in the NFC East a tough time, and I think they could pull off the upset today. I think this might be the best game of Sunday.
• Philadelphia @ N.Y. Giants: Giants. No DMac = no win.
• Pittsburgh @ Baltimore: Baltimore. I would pick Pittsburgh with Roethlisberger or Charlie Batch, but Tommy Maddox is the kiss of death.
• Tampa Bay @ Atlanta: Atlanta. I would pick Tampa Bay if Carnell “Jalopy” Williams didn’t look so gimpy since his foot injury. The Cadillac would have run roughshod over the poor Atlanta run defense. I expect Carolina to win the NFC South, so this game may determine a wild card spot.
• Seattle @ San Francisco: Seattle. Our Kryptonite Lock of the Week, just barely edging out Denver vs. the Jets, because Cody Pickett sucks WAY more than Brooks Bollinger.
• Buffalo @ San Diego: Buffalo’s crappy run defense should make for a big day for LaDanian Tomlinson. San Diego.
• Indianapolis @ Cincinatti: Indianapolis. Cincinatti still hasn’t beaten a legitimate team, and that’s not going to change on Sunday.
• N.Y. Jets @ Denver: Denver. Brooks Bollinger, meet Trevor Pryce.
• Kansas City @ Houston: Kansas City. I have nothing to say about this game, so I’ll just point out that Tony Gonzalez is a leading candidate for biggest fantasy fooball disappointment this year.
• Minnesota @ Green Bay: Green Bay. I’m picking Green Bay because they seem to have put an offense back together with everybody’s favorite nobody, Samkon Gado. But with some of the worst special teams play in the NFL, you have to wonder whether Minnesota won’t run back 2 or 3 kicks to the house again this week.

Pathetic Pundit Prediction: I got nothing this week. Starbuck totally let me down; in fact, the only difference between our predictions is that he thinks Oaktown will upset Washington, which I find pretty plausible. Someone on SI was just claiming that the Falcons would win the NFC South, but for the life of me, I can’t find it. I’ll update this section if I can find something before the games start.

Paul Edinger, who has undoubtedly provided a great deal of delight to Bears fans this season by demonstrating why is no longer “Missing at the Midway,” will not be playing for Minnesota next year. When your defense sets you up by creating two turnovers inside the opposing 35, you have to make those kicks. Sure, he had that absolutely clutch 56-yard game-winner against Green Bay, but he has generally looked a lot more like Martin Gramatica than Adam Vinatieri.

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